Writing is on the wall for emerging markets outside of China to increasingly drive copper demand growth on the back of rapid urbanisation, a growing population, and rising incomes.
Long-term, some analysts believe a new chapter is being written with the outlook for the soft, malleable metal remaining bullish.
Global demand for the ductile metal grew 2.5% in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024. The main growth contributors were China (up 3%), the US (up 7.4%), and the European Union (up 0.5%).
However, refined copper demand for ex-China Asia fell by 1% with China’s refined copper demand (representing 60% of global usage) at about 4.2 million tonnes in Q1 2025 – a slight increase from the same quarter in 2024.
Yet copper mine output world-wide is projected to rise by roughly 3% in 2025. The growth is expected to be mainly driven by expansions at existing mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Quellaveco in Peru, Quebrada Blanca in Chile, Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and the new Malmyz mine in Russia.
Chile has already benefited from higher output by national copper company Codelco, while production growth in Peru was further bolstered by higher output from Las Bambas and Toromocho.
Copper mine production is then forecasted to grow by 2% in 2027 to reach 24.1 million tonnes, with emerging markets Chile, Peru, and the DRC leading the way.
While the US accounts for just 6% of global copper production and imports meet roughly 45% of domestic demand, Giant Mining (CSE:BFG) CEO David Greenway believes North America is among the regions scripting copper’s next chapter.
With copper emerging as a national security priority under US President Donald Trump – and with Nevada ranked as the number one mining jurisdiction in the US – Greenway states that “the stars are aligning for Giant Mining”.
The CEO notes Giant Mining is fully funded for its next phase of drilling and the team is “incredibly proud of the work accomplished so far and excited about what lies ahead as we advance our mission to help re-shore America’s copper supply”.
In mid-July the company extended the mineralised breccia zone at the Majuba Hill Porphyry Copper-Silver-Gold Project in the US. Results confirm strong breccia controls and “high-grade” copper mineralisation, while also correlating with intercepts previously identified in two core holes, as reported by this news service.
Writing on the wall
Meanwhile, Australian mine production is projected to decline by 10% in 2024-25 compared to 2023-24. This decline in production will largely be due to Glencore (LSE:GLEN) closing Mount Isa with lower production expected at Eloise in Queensland, Prominent Hill in South Australia, Tritton in New South Wales, and Golden Grove in Western Australia.
The Capricorn facility in Queensland and the Savannah facility in Western Australia also entered care and maintenance in mid-2024.
Antares Metals (ASX:AM5) CEO Johan Lambrechts says the closing of the Mount Isa copper mines does not necessarily mean the end of the copper mining chapter for the region.
“It remains open to be written by those out in the field vying for the next discovery,” says Lambrechts, whose company last week returned up to 22% copper from a recent rock chip sampling program at its Mt Isa North Copper and Uranium Project in northwest Queensland.
“It remains open to be written by those out in the field vying for the next discovery”
Revolver Resources (ASX:RRR) Managing Director Pat Williams tends to agree. The company is advancing down the path to production and set to fire new copper into the market by mid-2026, as reported by Mining.com.au.
With copper supply poised to fall 30% short of demand requirements by 2035 and fewer new mines coming online in recent times, Williams notes as significant as Mount Isa is, “copper is a global playing field and is really only one of the many players involved”.
Nearby, Aruma Resources (ASX:AAJ) in early August began a nine-hole reverse circulation drilling program at its Fiery Creek Copper Project in the Mt Isa copper belt in northern Queensland.Drilling is targeting copper-silver-antimony mineralisation at the Piper prospect, as part of Aruma’s systematic approach to discover new copper-silver-antimony deposits at the project.
Oxford Economics believes these trends will fuel demand for the reddish-orange metal across AI, infrastructure, consumer electronics, and electric vehicles, to name a few.
However, permitting delays, declining ore grades, and mounting opposition to new mining projects could constrain supply growth although this imbalance will likely push prices higher over time, spurring greater investment in recycling and substitution.
“Consequently, we remain structurally bullish on medium- to long-run copper prices,” Oxford Economic reports in an August copper briefing.
Pricing plot thickens
The global copper market remains in surplus despite strong price gains so far in 2025. Oxford Economics notes under “normal conditions” this would have limited price increases, however the threat of US tariffs disrupted trade flows and distorted pricing.
“With those effects now fading, fundamentals are likely to reassert themselves, putting renewed downward pressure on prices,” the global independent economic advisory firm reports.
Copper prices experienced volatility early in Q2 2025 – from an all-time high in late March 2025 above US$11,000 a tonne – the price dropped to US$8,538 in early April as the US and China imposed tariffs on each other’s exports.
Prices then recovered as the tariffs tit-for-tat was largely reversed and consumers (mainly from Asia) procured material at low prices. At the time of writing copper was trading at above US$9,700.
“Copper pricing, though, is a global game,” Revolver Resources’ Williams says.
Further modest declines in the US dollar in the June quarter 2025 have helped prices to recover as a weaker USD makes the ductile metal cheaper for buyers outside of the US. This in turn leads to increased demand and upward pressure on prices.
The Australian Government’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly reports the differential between COMEX and LME copper prices has widened sharply since the beginning of 2025.
“The widening came as arbitrage traders drew copper to the US on the prospect of US tariffs on copper imports. In February, the US Administration ordered an investigation into whether US copper imports pose a threat to national security,” DISR reports.
“In late March 2025, the COMEX copper price traded at a US$1,650 a tonne premium to the LME price, compared to US$548 a tonne in January. Recently this gap has narrowed slightly – as of late June 2025, the premium on COMEX copper over the LME price was around US$1,100 a tonne.
“Gain in copper prices is expected to be minimal in H2 2025 as uncertainty over the global economic outlook weighs on copper demand. Copper demand is forecast to rise gradually in 2026 and 2027, helping to push prices to almost US$10,000 a tonne in H2 2027.
“Demand growth will be driven by investment in energy transition, electric vehicles, construction, data centres and advancements in technology – particularly in AI applications. Copper inventories remain relatively low, making the market susceptible to supply disruptions and/or an unexpected surge in demand.”
Oxford Economics expects copper prices to ease in Q3 2025 from the earlier highs this year as elevated copper inventory levels shipped to the US in anticipation of tariffs will redirect elsewhere.
This is expected to help relieve regional shortages and weigh on global prices. Oxford Economics says the US COMEX copper premium will narrow, and prices will revert to its historic close relationship with LME copper prices.
Chinese whispers
In parallel, significant Chinese investment in smelting capacity has led to refined copper oversupply, pushing smelter treatment, and refining charges into negative territory, indicating a supply glut and pressure on the profitability of smelters.
“Overcapacity in Chinese metals production is an issue which has triggered rising global trade protectionism. This dynamic of overcapacity underlines the current copper surplus and raises questions about how reliant countries have become on China’s supply and partly explains the US’ decision on copper tariffs,” according to Oxford Economics.
“That said, Chinese copper demand has grown by 6% year-to-date, helping to offset weaker growth elsewhere, where demand is increasing at roughly half that pace. This divergence is likely to exert downward pressure on US copper prices, particularly as a significant industrial slowdown is expected over the coming quarters.
“This dynamic of overcapacity underlines the current copper surplus and raises questions about how reliant countries have become on China’s supply”
“While traditional sources of demand will be weighed down by slowing activity, emerging drivers, such as AI infrastructure, data centres, and broader digitalisation, are providing some support. This pattern is also visible globally, where a slowdown in industrial production is dampening conventional copper demand.”
In March, global copper smelting activity fell by the largest margin since May 2023 to register its weakest reading at the time in 2025, according to geospatial intelligence company Earth-i.
Data from Earth-i’s SAVANT Global Copper Monitoring Index at the time showed the global inactive capacity index rose from 8.8% in February to 12.6%. Global copper smelting inactivity then rose from 12.6% in March to a monthly average of 13.7% in April, the highest reading since November 2024.
The SAVANT platform provides indicators of smelter activities around the globe, in an ‘easy-to-understand’ format, covering multiple metals and minerals.
DISR’s June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly reports tight conditions in copper concentrate markets during 2024 and an expansion of copper smelters (mainly in China) reduced global treatment charges.
Treatment charges rates declined from US$38 a tonne in early 2024 to “negative US$43 a tonne in April 2025, meaning smelters paid miners to process their concentrates”.
“Blister refining charges fell by 34% to US$82 a tonne in April 2025 from US$125 a tonne in July last year. Global refined production is forecast to rise by around 4% to reach 29.6Mt in 2025 due to improved concentrate availability, enabling greater utilisation of production capacity in major producers such as China and the DRC,” DISR reports.
Refined copper output is then projected to rise by an average of 2% a year to reach 30.8Mt in 2027, led by China, the DRC, and Chile.
Copper’s crucial characters
Amid this backdrop, there has been growing recognition of the strategic importance of copper, particularly from institutional investors focused on the energy transition, says Alma Metals (ASX:ALM) Managing Director Frazer Tabeart.
In H2 2025, Alma plans on releasing a Scoping Study for its Briggs Copper Project in Queensland, which to date hosts a resource of 439 million tonnes @ 0.25% copper for about 2 million tonnes of contained metal.
Meanwhile Pivotal Metals (ASX:PVT) in April increased the resource estimate for the Horden Lake Project in Québec, which supports its vision of advancing a “long-life open pit asset with a meaningful copper production profile”.
As reported by Mining.com.au, Horden Lake’s resource totals 37 million tonnes @ 1.1% copper equivalent for 407,000 tonnes of contained copper-equivalent metal.
In Ontario, Canada Copper Lake Resources (TSX-V:CPL) is seeking to capitalise on existing data and make significant discoveries on its Marshall Lake VMS Copper, Zinc, and Silver property.
Recently speaking to Mining.com.au, CEO Terry MacDonald says Copper Lake has two projects – Marshall Lake and Norton Lake – and each have different requirements to progress and varying levels of infrastructure.
Marshall Lake has year-round road access and “huge potential for multiple deposits”, and while it has been hampered by lack of funding amid depressed capital markets in Canada, less than $5 million is all it could take to capitalise on existing data to “make significant discoveries on the property”.
Copper Lake holds a majority interest in the 7,728 hectare Norton Lake property, which is located about 50km northeast of Fort Hope, Ontario and about 400km northeast of Thunder Bay.
Star Copper (CSE:STCU) is using newly processed geophysical data to refine target generation ahead of phase two drilling at the company’s namesake project in British Columbia, Canada.
New drill pads have been constructed at the Star North target, which sits 1km north of the current drilling area and presents a robust geophysical and geochemical footprint matching Star Main in size and technical signature.
The Star East target also mirrors the Star Main system, comprising a 250m by 500m chargeability and copper-gold soil anomaly.In July, Star Copper entered into a definitive agreement with Zimtu Capital Corp (TSX-V:ZC) to acquire the Copperline Project in British Columbia, Canada.
The company is compiling legacy data, creating a 3D geological model, and executing a staged exploration program that includes surface mapping, geophysics, and diamond drilling focused on the Main Zone extensions and new target areas.
Write toAdam OrlandoatMining.com.au
Images: Alma, DISR, Oxford Economics & Stock
